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Understand stock price as a forecast

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DCF Valuation

From Corporate Value to Stock Price

The table outlines the breakdown of the organization’s value into various components. This is the same as the economic balance. To determine the fair price per share, we […]

August 24, 2024
Market Efficiency

Isocurves

If the conclusion about the stock price resulting from your evaluation does not match the market price, it most often means that you missed something, something the market thinks differently about…

August 24, 2024
WACC, CoC, Structure

Market Return

An Interesting Approach Used by McKinsey for Calculating Market Expected Returns: Aggregating Current Stock Prices and Expected Fundamentals The fundamental formula for value creation can be expressed solely […]

August 23, 2024 Intermediate
WACC, CoC, Structure

WACC – Details

The statistically derived beta of an organization is highly volatile, with even one standard deviation often being significant. Therefore, industrial betas or betas from several organizations are taken, […]

August 23, 2024
DCF Valuation

Long-term Forecast

Simplifying horizon forecasts with formulas also imposes some limitations. Such situations are visible in photos, how forecasts are made under uncertain conditions for ROIC. Assuming ROIC = WACC. […]

August 23, 2024 Intermediate
DCF Valuation

Value Components

Valuation in Innovative Organizations In highly innovative organizations, it is often thought that the entire value of the organization lies beyond the horizon, increasing uncertainty and skepticism about […]

August 23, 2024 Intermediate
ROIC

ROIC > RONIC

It is essential to accurately forecast the new and stable ROIC, or RONIC, for future horizon predictions. Theoretically, if competition increases alongside organizational capabilities, the margin of error […]

August 23, 2024 Intermediate
DCF Valuation

Competitive Equilibrium

For calculating the value after the horizon, it’s necessary to explain the stability of financial indicators. What does this mean? NOPAT – must be normalized. This is the […]

August 23, 2024
DCF Valuation

Terminal Value Weight

Valuation Breakdown by Time Periods When breaking down an organization’s value into near-term and long-term components, the proportion of these two parts varies across different sectors. However, the […]

August 23, 2024 Intermediate
Growth

Forecast Errors

Valuation Forecasting: Three Crucial Moments to Consider for Error Mitigation: Source: #VALUATION – Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies7th EditionMcKinsey & CompanyTim Koller, Marc Goedhart, David Wessels

August 22, 2024 Intermediate
Market Multiples

Financial Health Multiples

Key Factors for Assessing an Organization’s Financial Health When evaluating an organization, in addition to making forecasts, we need to observe financial health multipliers. Here are some important […]

August 22, 2024 Advanced
Growth

Organic Growth

Observe the photo: on the left is an organization that grew rapidly and then experienced a sharp decline in its growth rate, while on the right is an […]

August 22, 2024 Intermediate
Growth

Revenue Forecast

After cleansing historical indicators, assumptions, and budgetary standards, we should attempt to identify revenue in operational forecasts. For example: Revenue = (Revenue / Unit) * Unit What drives […]

August 22, 2024 Intermediate
ROIC

Operating Lease vs ROIC

Translation for Professionals: The capitalization of operating leases significantly impacts ROIC. On one hand, it increases NOPAT by the implied interest rate, while on the other hand, it […]

August 22, 2024 Intermediate
Growth

Operating Multiples

When evaluating an organization, it is also interesting to use non-financial indicators. For example, one organization has a better margin than another, but what does this mean? Which […]

August 22, 2024 Intermediate
ROIC

Decomposition of ROIC

To gain a better understanding of the organization, it’s interesting to break down ROIC into components and analytically compare it with competitors. For example, as shown in the […]

August 16, 2024
DCF Valuation

Reorganized Profit/Loss

Reorganizing the Profit and Loss Statement for NOPAT Calculation Just as the balance sheet is reorganized to calculate Invested Capital, the profit and loss statement is reorganized to […]

August 16, 2024 Intermediate
DCF Valuation

Reorganized Balance

One Aspect I Appreciated About McKinsey’s Approach to Organizational Valuation Technology One aspect I appreciated about McKinsey’s approach to organizational valuation technology is the method of reorganizing financial […]

August 16, 2024