{"id":5902,"date":"2025-02-01T09:56:30","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T05:56:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/?p=5902"},"modified":"2026-04-13T21:35:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T17:35:47","slug":"valuation-of-long-term-leases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2025\/02\/01\/valuation-of-long-term-leases\/","title":{"rendered":"<span class=\"eon-recovered-georgian-title\" data-no-translation=\"\">\u10d2\u10e0\u10eb\u10da\u10d4\u10d5\u10d0\u10d3\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8 \u10e5\u10d8\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10e1 \u10e8\u10d4\u10e4\u10d0\u10e1\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Imagine you own a commercial real estate property that is leased under a 10-year fixed-rate contract. Once the contract expires, you will need to re-lease the property for another 10 years at a new rental rate. How should we evaluate the cash flows generated in this way and, consequently, the value of the real estate asset?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A key aspect of valuing long-term leased real estate is that two different discount rates are used:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Intra-lease rate<\/strong> \u2013 Used to discount cash flows during the contracted periods. This is relatively low due to the lower risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Inter-lease rate<\/strong> \u2013 Used to discount the expected cash flows between lease contracts back to the present period. This rate is higher due to the greater uncertainty involved.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Example Calculation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s assume you lease the property for $2,000 per month for 10 years. You expect to sign the lease contract in one year, with payments starting immediately upon signing (beginning-of-month payments). Additionally, you anticipate a 2% annual increase in rental rates and assume that every subsequent 10-year lease contract will follow this pricing trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Assumptions:<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The first lease contract starts in year 1.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The discount rate for contracted periods (intra-lease rate) is <strong>6%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The discount rate for periods between leases (inter-lease rate) is <strong>10%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rents grow by <strong>2% per year<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"449\" height=\"201\" data-attachment-id=\"5910\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2025\/02\/01\/valuation-of-long-term-leases\/image-347\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-26.png?fit=449%2C201&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"449,201\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-26.png?fit=449%2C201&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-5910\" style=\"width: 500px\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-26.png?resize=449%2C201&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Step-by-Step Valuation<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>First lease contract (Years 1\u201310):<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The present value (PV) of this 10-year lease cash flow is calculated using the lower <strong>intra-lease discount rate (6%)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since the lease begins in year 1, we then discount this PV by one additional year using the higher <strong>inter-lease discount rate (10%)<\/strong> to bring it back to today\u2019s value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Subsequent lease contracts (every 10 years):<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The same process is repeated every 10 years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Each 10-year block is discounted first at <strong>6%<\/strong>, then further discounted back to today using <strong>10%<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This series of lease contracts forms a geometric progression, which allows us to use a formula to simplify the calculation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"460\" height=\"403\" data-attachment-id=\"5925\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2025\/02\/01\/valuation-of-long-term-leases\/image-351\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-30.png?fit=460%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"460,403\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-30.png?fit=460%2C403&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-5925\" style=\"width: 500px\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-30.png?resize=460%2C403&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By applying this method, the property\u2019s value is calculated as <strong>$327,000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sensitivity Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How does the property\u2019s value change under different conditions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Shorter Lease Contracts (e.g., 5-year leases)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If lease terms are reduced to <strong>5 years<\/strong>, more frequent re-leasing introduces higher risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As a result, inter-lease discounting plays a greater role, lowering the property\u2019s value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Changing the Discount Rate Spread<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If the difference between the intra-lease and inter-lease discount rates increases, the property\u2019s value decreases.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Conversely, a smaller difference makes long-term cash flows more predictable, increasing value.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"976\" height=\"156\" data-attachment-id=\"5931\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2025\/02\/01\/valuation-of-long-term-leases\/image-352\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31.png?fit=976%2C156&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"976,156\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31.png?fit=976%2C156&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-5931\" style=\"width: 1000px\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-31.png?resize=976%2C156&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Indexing Rent to Inflation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If lease contracts include automatic inflation adjustments (e.g., rent increases annually by inflation), the investment becomes more secure against inflation risks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since this reduces risk, the <strong>discount rate should be lower<\/strong>, or inflation should be explicitly factored into calculations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adding a <strong>2% inflation adjustment<\/strong> to rent values increases the property\u2019s value to <strong>$357,000<\/strong>\u2014a <strong>9.3% increase<\/strong> compared to the base case.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"154\" data-attachment-id=\"5935\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2025\/02\/01\/valuation-of-long-term-leases\/image-353\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-32.png?fit=975%2C154&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"975,154\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-32.png?fit=975%2C154&amp;ssl=1\" class=\"wp-image-5935\" style=\"width: 1000px\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/image-32.png?resize=975%2C154&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comparing with a Perpetuity Model<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What if we simplify the valuation using a basic perpetuity formula?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Using a <strong>2% growth and a 10% discount rate<\/strong>, the perpetuity model gives a valuation of <strong>$300,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The structured 10-year lease model (without inflation) results in <strong>$327,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When <strong>2% inflation<\/strong> is included in lease contracts, the value increases to <strong>$357,000<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key Takeaways<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Valuation is highly sensitive to lease duration and discount rate assumptions.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Indexing rent to inflation significantly increases the asset\u2019s value.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>While perpetuity formulas provide quick estimates, structured modeling captures lease dynamics more accurately.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How much does &#8220;simplifying life&#8221; really cost in valuation? The numbers suggest that a more precise approach can make a significant difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/8.-long-term-leases.xlsx\">Excel Model \u2013 Long-Term Leases<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br \/><strong>\u10d0\u10d3\u10d0\u10de\u10e2\u10d8\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10e3\u10da\u10d8\u10d0 \u10ec\u10e7\u10d0\u10e0\u10dd\u10d3\u10d0\u10dc:<\/strong> Commercial Real Estate Analysis and Investments, D. M. Geltner, N. G. Miller, J. Clayton, P. Eichholtz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u10ec\u10d0\u10e0\u10db\u10dd\u10d8\u10d3\u10d2\u10d8\u10dc\u10d4\u10d7 \u10e0\u10dd\u10db \u10d2\u10d0\u10e5\u10d5\u10d7 \u10d9\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10e0\u10ea\u10d8\u10e3\u10da\u10d8 \u10e3\u10eb\u10e0\u10d0\u10d5\u10d8 \u10e5\u10dd\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0, \u10e0\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10da\u10e1\u10d0\u10ea 10 \u10ec\u10da\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8, \u10e4\u10d8\u10e5\u10e1\u10d8\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10e3\u10da \u10e2\u10d0\u10e0\u10d8\u10e4\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8, \u10d8\u10ef\u10d0\u10e0\u10d8\u10d7 \u10d0\u10e5\u10d8\u10e0\u10d0\u10d5\u10d4\u10d1\u10d7. \u10d9\u10dd\u10dc\u10e2\u10e0\u10d0\u10e5\u10e2\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d5\u10d0\u10d3\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d2\u10d0\u10e1\u10d5\u10da\u10d8\u10e1 \u10e8\u10d4\u10db\u10d3\u10d4\u10d2 \u10d9\u10d8 \u10e3\u10dc\u10d3\u10d0 \u10db\u10dd\u10d0\u10ee\u10d3\u10d8\u10dc\u10dd\u10d7 \u10d9\u10d8\u10d3\u10d4\u10d5 10 \u10ec\u10da\u10d8\u10d7 \u10d3\u10d0\u10d9\u10dd\u10dc\u10e2\u10e0\u10d0\u10e5\u10e2\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0, \u10dd\u10e6\u10dd\u10dc\u10d3 \u10d0\u10ee\u10d0\u10da\u10d8 \u10e4\u10d0\u10e1\u10d8\u10d7. \u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dd\u10e0 \u10e3\u10dc\u10d3\u10d0 \u10e8\u10d4\u10d5\u10d0\u10e4\u10d0\u10e1\u10dd\u10d7 \u10d0\u10e1\u10d4 \u10db\u10d8\u10e6\u10d4\u10d1\u10e3\u10da\u10d8 [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12998525,"featured_media":5953,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_eon_insights_quality":"","_eon_insights_decision":"","_eon_insights_destination":"","_eon_insights_merge_group":"","_eon_insights_required_changes":"","_eon_insights_start_order":0,"_eon_featured_insight":0,"_eon_insights_map_version":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[776998870,256440],"tags":[8590,4269,6635,28559,176349233,3225],"eon_topic":[],"eon_learning_path":[],"eon_collection":[],"eon_level":[],"eon_content_type":[],"eon_source":[],"eon_idea":[784445708],"eon_framework":[],"class_list":["post-5902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-commercial-real-estate-analysis-and-investments-d-m-geltner-n-g-miller-j-clayton-p-eichholtz","category-real-estate-investments","tag-economy","tag-finance","tag-investing","tag-investment","tag-lease-valuation","tag-real-estate","eon_idea-real-estate-investments"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - 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