{"id":5011,"date":"2024-11-19T11:20:05","date_gmt":"2024-11-19T07:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/?p=5011"},"modified":"2026-04-15T08:20:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T04:20:34","slug":"planning-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2024\/11\/19\/planning-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"<span class=\"eon-recovered-georgian-title\" data-no-translation=\"\">\u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d4\u10d2\u10db\u10d5\u10d8\u10e1 \u10ea\u10d3\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10da\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Delays in construction projects and massive budget overruns appear to be not just a Georgian problem. Daniel Kahneman, in his book <em>Thinking, Fast and Slow<\/em>, refers to this phenomenon as the <em>Planning Fallacy<\/em>. The phenomenon arises from humans&#8217; irrational tendency to plan for the desired (rather than objectively expected) scenario. Unfortunately, this issue affects all of us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, from the book: A 2005 study of international railway projects from 1969-98 showed that in 90% of projects, the planned number of passengers was on average 106% higher than expected, while budget overruns averaged 45%. Even though the statistics of all historical plan deviations were published, every new plan still missed the mark, regardless of logic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my view, the problem is not just that the plan is overly optimistic, but also that updated realities are not followed and profitability is not managed. A famous example comes to mind about how a frog boils in water gradually heated on a stove without realizing it. Similarly, this happens in long-term construction projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The good news is that if we create a simple and effective reporting system and ask the right questions at least once a month, we can minimize both the overrun and delay problems. Some potential questions could be:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Deadlines:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>How many days are we behind the plan?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What is the average cost of one delayed day?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Is the problem systemic? Is future delay likely?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much will the total project completion time be extended?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What can we do to get back on track?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Is the delay more costly than the efforts to return to the plan?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What new risks might we face in the near future?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Budget:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What work should have been completed by now?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How is the budget performing based on planned (not current) prices?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much overrun do we have due to material price increases?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much overrun do we have due to increased labor costs?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How much overrun do we have due to quality adjustments?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Should we make changes to the project&#8217;s architecture?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Should we make changes to suppliers or contractors?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Should we reflect the overrun in the revenue part?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What risks does the project budget face in the future?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Profitability:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What is the project&#8217;s profitability considering the updated budget and timelines?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P.S.<br \/>Here you can see the reporting form that typically answers the key questions with an Earned Value Report: <a href=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/construction-report-form.xlsx\">[Download Form]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-27.png?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1037\" height=\"551\" data-attachment-id=\"5032\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2024\/11\/19\/planning-fallacy\/image-240\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-27.png?fit=1037%2C551&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1037,551\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-27.png?fit=1024%2C544&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-27.png?resize=1037%2C551&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5032\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P.P.S<br \/>There are various software programs available for managing construction projects and generating similar reports automatically. I personally use <a href=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/2024\/06\/21\/construction-finance\/\">MS Project<\/a>, which is widely used, affordable, and easy to implement. If you&#8217;d like, I can assist you with implementation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u10e1\u10d0\u10db\u10e8\u10d4\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10da\u10dd \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d4\u10e5\u10e2\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d5\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0 \u10d3\u10d0 \u10d1\u10d8\u10e3\u10ef\u10d4\u10e2\u10d8\u10e1 \u10db\u10d0\u10e1\u10e8\u10e2\u10d0\u10d1\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 \u10d2\u10d0\u10d3\u10d0\u10ee\u10d0\u10e0\u10ef\u10d5\u10d0, \u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dd\u10e0\u10ea \u10e9\u10d0\u10dc\u10e1 \u10db\u10d0\u10e0\u10e2\u10dd \u10e5\u10d0\u10e0\u10d7\u10e3\u10da\u10d8 \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d1\u10da\u10d4\u10db\u10d0 \u10d0\u10e0 \u10d0\u10e0\u10d8\u10e1. Daniel Kahneman-\u10d8, \u10ec\u10d8\u10d2\u10dc\u10e8\u10d8 Thinking, Fast and Slow, \u10d0\u10db \u10e4\u10d4\u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10dc\u10e1 \u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d4\u10d2\u10db\u10d5\u10d8\u10e1 \u10ea\u10d3\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10da\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0\u10e1 (Planning Fallacy) \u10e3\u10ec\u10dd\u10d3\u10d4\u10d1\u10e1. \u10e4\u10d4\u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10dc\u10d8 \u10d2\u10d0\u10db\u10dd\u10db\u10d3\u10d8\u10dc\u10d0\u10e0\u10d4\u10dd\u10d1\u10e1 \u10d0\u10d3\u10d0\u10db\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d0\u10e0\u10d0\u10e0\u10d0\u10ea\u10d8\u10dd\u10dc\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":12998525,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_eon_insights_quality":"","_eon_insights_decision":"","_eon_insights_destination":"","_eon_insights_merge_group":"","_eon_insights_required_changes":"","_eon_insights_start_order":0,"_eon_featured_insight":0,"_eon_insights_map_version":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[87451771,104753438,240437],"tags":[179,19994,103,510,3225],"eon_topic":[],"eon_learning_path":[],"eon_collection":[],"eon_level":[],"eon_content_type":[],"eon_source":[],"eon_idea":[784445702,784445707],"eon_framework":[],"class_list":["post-5011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-thinking-fast-and-slow-by-daniel-kahneman","category-investor-psychology","category-real-estate-development","tag-business","tag-construction","tag-news","tag-project-management","tag-real-estate","eon_idea-investor-psychology","eon_idea-real-estate-development"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Planning Fallacy - Eon Investment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2024\/11\/19\/planning-fallacy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ka_GE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Planning Fallacy - Eon Investment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u10e1\u10d0\u10db\u10e8\u10d4\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10da\u10dd \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d4\u10e5\u10e2\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d5\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0 \u10d3\u10d0 \u10d1\u10d8\u10e3\u10ef\u10d4\u10e2\u10d8\u10e1 \u10db\u10d0\u10e1\u10e8\u10e2\u10d0\u10d1\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 \u10d2\u10d0\u10d3\u10d0\u10ee\u10d0\u10e0\u10ef\u10d5\u10d0, \u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dd\u10e0\u10ea \u10e9\u10d0\u10dc\u10e1 \u10db\u10d0\u10e0\u10e2\u10dd \u10e5\u10d0\u10e0\u10d7\u10e3\u10da\u10d8 \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d1\u10da\u10d4\u10db\u10d0 \u10d0\u10e0 \u10d0\u10e0\u10d8\u10e1. Daniel Kahneman-\u10d8, \u10ec\u10d8\u10d2\u10dc\u10e8\u10d8 Thinking, Fast and Slow, \u10d0\u10db \u10e4\u10d4\u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10dc\u10e1 \u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d4\u10d2\u10db\u10d5\u10d8\u10e1 \u10ea\u10d3\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10da\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0\u10e1 (Planning Fallacy) \u10e3\u10ec\u10dd\u10d3\u10d4\u10d1\u10e1. \u10e4\u10d4\u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10dc\u10d8 \u10d2\u10d0\u10db\u10dd\u10db\u10d3\u10d8\u10dc\u10d0\u10e0\u10d4\u10dd\u10d1\u10e1 \u10d0\u10d3\u10d0\u10db\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d0\u10e0\u10d0\u10e0\u10d0\u10ea\u10d8\u10dd\u10dc\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 [\u2026]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2024\/11\/19\/planning-fallacy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Eon Investment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/eoninvestment\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-11-19T07:20:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-15T04:20:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/image-27.png?w=1024\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"neoinsight\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"neoinsight\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 \u10ec\u10e3\u10d7\u10d8\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/posts\\\/5011\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/#website\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"neoinsight\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/9bb6a82e15a5231535d10233395afa89\"},\"headline\":\"\u10d3\u10d0\u10d2\u10d4\u10d2\u10db\u10d5\u10d8\u10e1 \u10ea\u10d3\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10da\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-19T07:20:05+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-04-15T04:20:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/19\\\/planning-fallacy\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":438,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/19\\\/planning-fallacy\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/image-27.png?w=1024\",\"keywords\":[\"business\",\"construction\",\"news\",\"project-management\",\"real-estate\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman\",\"Investor Psychology\",\"Real Estate Development\"],\"inLanguage\":\"ka-GE\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/2024\\\/11\\\/19\\\/planning-fallacy\\\/#respond\"]}],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/posts\\\/5011\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/posts\\\/5011\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/eoninvestment.com\\\/ka\\\/wp-json\\\/wp\\\/v2\\\/posts\\\/5011\",\"name\":\"Planning Fallacy - 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