{"id":3141,"date":"2024-06-29T09:09:56","date_gmt":"2024-06-29T05:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/?p=3141"},"modified":"2026-04-19T17:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T13:33:24","slug":"real-vs-nominal-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/eoninvestment.com\/ka\/2024\/06\/29\/real-vs-nominal-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"\u10e0\u10d4\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 \u10d3\u10d0 \u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10dc\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0\u10d8 \u10d2\u10d4\u10d2\u10db\u10d0\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

When inflation is very high, it becomes difficult to make forecasts in both real and nominal terms. Therefore, it becomes necessary to involve hybrid mechanisms. The table shows which version provides better results in relation to which item in the forecasts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We cannot make accurate tax forecasts with real figures because taxes depend on nominal figures. Additionally, from the real balance and profit-loss, cash flows of working capital are not directly formed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the case of nominal figures, the stable interdependence between assets and sales is disrupted, making it difficult to accurately derive reinvestment figures in capital and, consequently, accurately forecast EBITA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When making accurate and consistent forecasts, the discounted value of cash flows obtained in both real and nominal terms should match, taking into account that real and nominal WACC are different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The process sequence is as follows: (see also: Excel Model)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Forecasts of operational indicators in real terms:<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    1. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
        \n
      • Forecasting revenues and operating profit;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Forecasting long-term assets\/revenues;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Forecasting working capital (based on revenues);<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Planning depreciation from assets and deriving corresponding EBITA.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        2. Compiling financial statements in nominal terms:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
            \n
          • Nominal operational figures and working capital are forecasted by multiplying real figures by the inflation index;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Long-term assets are forecasted using the usual formula, where the previous period’s amount is added to CapEx and subtracted by depreciation. However, depreciation is not determined by multiplying real depreciation by the inflation index, but by the usual method based on the lifespan of assets;<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Taxes are calculated based on nominal figures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            3. Forecasting financial statements in real terms:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            1. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                \n
              • Initially, the real part of the statements is compiled, but now it is supplemented from the nominal part for what was not initially available. For example, taxes are transferred by dividing nominal figures by the corresponding year’s inflation index.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                4. Forecasting cash flows for both versions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                1. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                    \n
                  • Cash flows are forecasted using traditional formulas. However, there is one difference in deriving the investment flows in real working capital. The formula is as follows:\n
                      \n
                    • Investment in NWC [t]<\/sub> = Increase in NWC [t]<\/sub> + NWC [t-1]<\/sub> * i[t]<\/sub> \/ (1+i[t]<\/sub>)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                      5. Discounting cash flows for both versions:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                        \n
                      1. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
                          \n
                        • It should be noted that nominal WACC is the sum of real WACC and inflation. More precisely, the formula is:\n
                            \n
                          • Nominal WACC = (1+Real WACC) * (1+i) – 1<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                          • The forecast of the horizon value is done using the usual value creation formula. However, in the case of real cash flows, the reinvestment component in working capital is added, making the formulas slightly more complicated. The cash flow formula becomes as follows:<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                            \"\"\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                            Horizon Value formula:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                            \"\"\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                            P.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                            Our model does not include the capital structure part. For a more complete assessment, it will be necessary to forecast and adjust interest expenses, leverage, and equity flows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                            \u10e0\u10dd\u10ea\u10d0 \u10d8\u10dc\u10e4\u10da\u10d0\u10ea\u10d8\u10d0 \u10eb\u10d0\u10da\u10d8\u10d0\u10dc \u10db\u10d0\u10e6\u10d0\u10da\u10d8\u10d0, \u10e0\u10d7\u10e3\u10da\u10d3\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0 \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dc\u10dd\u10d6\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10e1 \u10d2\u10d0\u10d9\u10d4\u10d7\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0 \u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dd\u10e0\u10ea \u10e0\u10d4\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0, \u10d8\u10e1\u10d4 \u10dc\u10dd\u10db\u10d8\u10dc\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0 \u10ea\u10d8\u10e4\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10e8\u10d8, \u10d0\u10db\u10d8\u10e2\u10dd\u10db \u10f0\u10d8\u10d1\u10e0\u10d8\u10d3\u10e3\u10da\u10d8 \u10db\u10d4\u10e5\u10d0\u10dc\u10d8\u10d6\u10db\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10e1 \u10e9\u10d0\u10e0\u10d7\u10d5\u10d0 \u10ee\u10d3\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0 \u10e1\u10d0\u10ed\u10d8\u10e0\u10dd. \u10ea\u10ee\u10e0\u10d8\u10da\u10e8\u10d8 \u10dc\u10d0\u10e9\u10d5\u10d4\u10dc\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10d0, \u10de\u10e0\u10dd\u10d2\u10dc\u10dd\u10d6\u10d4\u10d1\u10e8\u10d8 \u10e0\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10da\u10d8 \u10db\u10e3\u10ee\u10da\u10d7\u10d0\u10dc \u10db\u10d8\u10db\u10d0\u10e0\u10d7\u10d4\u10d1\u10d0\u10e8\u10d8 \u10e0\u10dd\u10db\u10d4\u10da\u10d8 \u10d5\u10d4\u10e0\u10e1\u10d8\u10d0 \u10d8\u10eb\u10da\u10d4\u10d5\u10d0 \u10e3\u10d9\u10d4\u10d7\u10d4\u10e1 \u10e8\u10d4\u10d3\u10d4\u10d2\u10e1: \u10e0\u10d4\u10d0\u10da\u10e3\u10e0 \u10ea\u10d8\u10e4\u10e0\u10d4\u10d1\u10d8\u10d7 \u10d5\u10d4\u10e0 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